VIrginia titans clash in the gubernatorial election

“Virginia is for Lovers.”

At least, so the slogan goes. When referencing the picturesque landscape, craft breweries or bustling ecotourism industry, the state motto is perfectly accurate. But when it comes to politics, perhaps more apt phrases could be “for the party hardliners,” “heavily polarized” or “deeply partisan.” 

All of this occurring, of course, in the same state that bestowed the world with both George Washington and Pat Robertson and ironically still votes Democratic, the same way it would have in 1861 when it seceded from the Union and became the heart and seat of government of the Confederate States of America.  In a land where every race seems to be decided by a few percentage points and many prayers, Virginia has a very important decision to make—one that may hold true as a referendum on the Trump Administration in one of America’s most politically—and strategically—important states. 

According to The Economist, President Donald J. Trump’s net approval rating, or his disapproval subtracted from his approval, sits at an alarming -14.1%  in the state, putting his actual approval rating at a less-than-desirable ~43%. Since a multiplicity of voters are decidedly unhappy with Washington, they may now look to Richmond for a change.

Enter Abigail Spanberger. A former congresswoman from Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. She left the seat she had flipped from conservative control in 2018 at the end of her tenure earlier this year, focusing instead on clinching the Democratic nomination for Virginia’s gubernatorial race. An alumna of the University of Virginia, Spanberger served as a CIA case officer before leaving to work in the private sector. There, she worked for EAB Global, INC, a consulting firm specializing in providing services to educational institutions. Spanberger is a true moderate Democrat, which may spell trouble for the further right policies of her opponent. Spanberger, anyhow, will face struggles of her own, especially considering the controversy surrounding her pick for Attorney General, Jay Jones. He came under bipartisan fire after 2022 texts surfaced in which he made deeply personal threats against Republican officials, going so far as to hypothetically harm her family. Couple that with Ghazala Hashmi, a Muslim, who made history in 2019 by becoming the first Muslim woman elected to the Virginia State Senate. Hashmi is deeply progressive, which may spell trouble for a campaign in a state that thrives on moderate Democrats to win any races for the left.

Spanberger, however, has positioned herself as a prime example of the modern Southern Democrat movement, never shying away from criticizing the Democratic Party at critical junctures. 

In 2020, Spanberger vocalized her position against the establishment party, citing it as too far left and enamored with socialist tendencies. For instance, just days after winning the election by a margin of about 1.8% in November, she said in a testy exchange with party leadership that the elections were “a failure” from a congressional standpoint, citing Republican attack ads that disparaged “socialists” and “socialism,” as trigger phrases that should never be used again. 

In a state that, among others, saw a sharp rightward swing, a Democrat unafraid to call out her own party may be the antidote national Democratic leadership is looking for. 

Still, Spanberger knows she’d do well to drum up support from notable members of the party, hence why she was more than grateful to receive endorsements from notable Democrats, like Former President Barack Obama, U.S. Senators from Virginia Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, and Former Governor Ralph Northam.

Don’t count out Lieutenant Governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, though. A Marine veteran and naturalized citizen, Earle-Sears has a penchant for making history. In the general election for the 90th district seat in the Virginia House of Delegates, upsetting a 20-year Democratic incumbent to become the first Black Woman in the first Republican-majority House of Delegates since 1865. Running with incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares, Earle-Sears has the benefit of recency bias, though she is taking a chance with John Reid, a running mate who, if elected, would become the first openly homosexual Republican official in the state of Virginia.

Earle-Sears, though, deeply entrenched herself into the ranks of the Republican Party, supporting President Trump in 2020 and again in 2024. She received an endorsement from the President on October 21, though that hasn’t stopped her from challenging him. In her own words, Earle-Sears referred to Donald Trump in 2022 as a “liability,” urging the Republican Party to move on in a set of 2022 remarks that strained the relationship between the President and the Lieutenant Governor.

Earle-Sears, however, is eager to prove that she can make history outside of Trump’s sphere of influence, even as rivals decry her loyalty to him. 

Nationwide, only six Black Republican women have run for governor since 2000, and Earle-Sears, the daughter of immigrants from Kingston, Jamaica, wants to break the race barrier in the party. 

“My dad came to America with only $1.75 at the height of the Civil Rights Movement — 17 days before Dr. King gave his ‘I Have a Dream’ speech, and here I am, now second in command in the former capitol of the Confederate states,” Sears said. As anti-immigrant sentiment becomes a more ingrained part of Republican dogma, Earle-Sears is out to demonstrate that newcomers can accomplish great things in the U.S.—should they do so legally.

Thus, the party—at least in Virginia—stands at a tug of war between party doctrine and a candidate who directly contradicts it. 








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VEXITATIOUS VIRGINIA: The Commonwealth of Virginia, once a purple state and a “vote your conscience”-based electorate is now a prime example of the persistence of modern Southern Democrats. Though it has become rather arduous for a Republican candidate to hash out a state-wide victory in the Old Dominion, the party has been able to manage significant gains, particularly in executive contests. The GOP holds five of the state’s eleven U.S. Congressional Districts, using the near halfway split to illustrate the fact that the state is still competitive. Image created by Mason Bibby via mapchart.net. 

The victor will need to draw her map through some very specific counties and cities. As North Cross’s U.S. Government Teacher Zachary Virgin says, "Virginia's electorate includes a mix of urban, suburban, and rural communities and has leaned both Republican and Democratic in recent years. [I]ts results can signal how swing voters might behave nationally. A strong performance by either party can either affirm or challenge the prevailing political narrative leading into the midterms or the next presidential cycle.”

There are roughly eleven “swing” counties and independent cities, but for the purposes of this analysis we will look specifically at five [Chesapeake and Virginia Beach].

The first is Nelson County. The county also didn’t have a single individual win more than 55% of the vote until 2020. Even then, it hasn’t happened since. So what makes Nelson, a semirural, sparingly populated area, so swingy? Part of it can be attributed to its booming craft beverage industry and an economy built around ecotourism and horticulture. The county relies mainly on high-speed internet to boost professional and technical services. This educated and elevated populace helps to drive more liberal voters. Nelson, despite its political geographic isolation, borders liberal stronghold Albemarle County, along with its university town Democratic enclave, Charlottesville. The county also attracts a mix of people, including retirees and commuters. 

Both candidates will look to court the county, and to do so, they’ll need to tackle issues like affordable housing and the cost of living, which may benefit Spanberger. But with around 15,000 people, Earle-Sears could potentially make up ground in other locations.

This brings us to Prince Edward County. It voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020, yet shifted to Donald Trump in 2024. Even then, Trump barely eked out a victory, only holding the county by about two points. It’s possible the county may have shifted in 2021, when Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin (who was first to endorse Earle-Sears last November) won it by around nine points. Historically, the county has shifted away from the Democratic Party with the broader ebb and flow of politics. Voters who opposed desegregation gradually left the party after the realization of the fated big switch eventually migrated to—and stayed part of—the Republican Party. It’s important to note, though, that Kamala Harris spectacularly underperformed by Democratic standards. It’s entirely plausible that Spanberger does not, which could potentially signal a win. However, it is equally as possible that Earle-Sears holds on, which could evidence a more permanent realignment to the right.

A fascinating trend emerges in Southwest Virginia. Montgomery County, population 99,000, sees a significant amount of political weight inflicted by students at Virginia Tech, who overwhelmingly wax liberally. Being the largest employer in the county, Virginia Tech isn’t just a product of its students, but also its faculty. In an otherwise conservative county, this paints the region an idiosyncratic blue tint. In 2023, Democrats won the Board of Supervisors race, even with Harris only winning by 3% a year later. 

Due to redistricting, Montgomery County is sometimes split between different legislative districts. For example, some districts combine the more liberal university towns with the more conservative rural areas, resulting in highly competitive state legislative races.  

Still, Montgomery County illustrates how important the youth vote is—and how important it is to capture it early on.

The last two, however, are more alike than you’d expect, and wildly more important.

Welcome to Virginia’s coast, where a county and an independent city exercise an intense amount of power over the state’s races. Chesapeake County and Virginia Beach City, with a population of 254, 997 and 454, 808, respectively, are some of the largest toss-up areas on the East Coast. In Virginia Beach, though it typically lands reliably blue, has seen a notable shift in competition in recent years. President Trump lost the city by only about 3 percentage points, highlighting the increasing competitive nature of the races.

The city is also home to several major military installations, including Naval Air Station Oceana. This traditionally conservative-leaning voting bloc makes up a significant portion of the population. Moreover, Virginia Beach has befallen the larger national trend of the Urban vs. Suburban divide, in which urban centers tend to vote more liberal, while suburban areas wax conservative. But Virginia Beach is a bit of a maverick on that issue, given that the Christian Broadcast Network (CBN) holds its headquarters here, which has led to more conservative trends. Still, the Democratic gains reflect broader political trends in the Commonwealth, as the state as a whole has become more reliably Democratic in presidential elections over the last decade.

Finally, perhaps the most interesting trend reflects in one of the state’s eastern counties. “As Chesapeake goes, so goes the nation,” is a popular saying among political pundits. In fact, the winning presidential candidates between 2008 and 2020 won the county, often scraping by with 1 or 2 percentage points. Kamala Harris broke the trend in 2024, being the first non-victorious candidate in decades to win the county. Because of its high population, both Republican and Democratic campaigns invest heavily into securing the region, even at points garnering national attention. Chesapeake could be an important bellwether for the national mood ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

And, if Earle-Sears or Spanberger wants to take Richmond, they’d best be “lovers” of these swing players indeed.











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